PSG vs Borussia Dortmund predictions, odds and betting tips

Paris Saint-Germain and Borussia Dortmund face off in the Champions League semi-finals on Tuesday.

PSG vs Borussia Dortmund odds

Find the latest match odds for PSG vs Borussia Dortmund. All odds are provided by our best-reviewed football betting sites. Odds are subject to change.

⚡Quick PSG vs Borussia Dortmund betting tips

• PSG to qualify - 8/13 with bet365
• Under 3.5 goals - 4/6 with bet365
• Kylian Mbappe to score any time - 8/11 with bet365

Paris Saint-Germain vs Borussia Dortmund predictions

Who holds the advantage in this Champions League semi-final? That is not an easy question to answer.

Numerically, of course, Borussia Dortmund have the edge. Nicklas Fullkrug notched the only goal of the game in the first leg, giving Edin Terzic’s side a 1-0 lead to take to the Parc des Princes this week.

Yet some would argue - and the bookmakers are among them - that the fact the return fixture is taking place at that venue means Paris Saint-Germain are in pole position to advance to the final. 

A 1-0 defeat on the road is not as disappointing a result as it was when the away goals rule still existed. As it is, any one-goal victory on Tuesday would force extra time in front of PSG’s home fans. A two-goal triumph would send the French champions straight to Wembley Stadium.

Last week’s encounter was close. Dortmund will feel they edged it and Fullkrug took his goal wonderfully well, but PSG had opportunities of their own at Signal Iduna Park.

Overall, Dortmund had 13 shots and PSG had 14. Four of Dortmund’s attempts and three of PSG’s were on target. The expected goals figures showed 1.78 for the hosts and 1.7 for the visitors. The difference is that BVB took one of their chances and PSG were wasteful with theirs. 

PSG have not played since the first leg after the French football authorities decided to give them (and Europa League-chasing Marseille) the weekend off. Ligue 1 is not much preparation for the Champions League anyway, especially now PSG have wrapped up another title.

Dortmund warmed up for Wednesday’s showdown by thrashing Augsburg 5-1 on Saturday. The domestic pressure is off for them too, with Champions League qualification already confirmed.

A place in the final of this year’s edition is the prize on the line here. The stakes could hardly be higher.

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PSG vs Borussia Dortmund betting tips

PSG will hope that home advantage proves decisive in the second leg of this Champions League semi-final.

PSG to qualify - 8/13 (bet365)

Paris Saint-Germain will draw confidence from the fact they beat Borussia Dortmund 2-0 at the Parc des Princes in the group stage of this season’s competition.

That was on matchday one and plenty has changed since then, while the circumstances of this meeting are also hugely different.

But PSG will still feel, with much justification, that they can overturn the first-leg deficit on home turf. 

In Dortmund, they are facing a Champions League semi-finalist that is not even in the top four of the Bundesliga. Terzic’s side have had their moments this term, yet Dortmund remain inconsistent - hence their present position of fifth in the German top flight.

This team did not expect to be here and keeping PSG at bay in front of their own supporters could be beyond them.

Terzic is a smart coach, though, and it is hardly beyond the realms of possibility that this spirited Dortmund side forces extra time. With that in mind, tip PSG to qualify rather than win within 90 minutes.

⚽ Back PSG to reach the Champions League final at 8/13 with bet365 ⚽

Under 3.5 goals - 4/6 (bet365)

Both teams fashioned their fair share of chances last week, but it would be wrong to depict the first leg as an open, end-to-end encounter.

The return fixture may well be cagier, at least in the first half. Borussia Dortmund will be content to hold on to their 1-0 advantage, while Luis Enrique will preach the importance of patience to his players. 

With a slender one-goal deficit, there is no need for Paris Saint-Germain to take unnecessary risks here. The hosts would be better off biding their time rather than committing too many bodies to attack in the first half.

These sides have met three times this term and on each occasion no more than two goals were scored.

Even allowing for the fact this game could pan out slightly differently given its do-or-die nature, it is hard to see PSG and Dortmund trading four goals or more.

⚽ Choose under 3.5 goals at 4/6 with bet365 ⚽

Kylian Mbappe to score any time - 8/11 (bet365)

Paris Saint-Germain will welcome back Achraf Hakimi after the right-back missed the first leg with a ban. His return should bolster their attacking efforts this time around.

Luis Enrique may also be planning to rejig his frontline. Ousmane Dembele was more guilty than Bradley Barcola when it came to profligacy last time out, but it is the latter who could make way for Goncalo Ramos.

The inclusion of the Portugal international would bring two big benefits. First, it would give PSG more of a penalty-box presence in a game in which their opponents, whether by design or necessity, will sit deep at times.

Second, it would allow Kylian Mbappe to operate from his favoured position on the left. The Frenchman might be on his way out of Paris, but he is still the man who usually makes the difference when his current employers need him.

⚽ Tip Kylian Mbappe to score any time at 8/11 with bet365 ⚽

📺 How to watch PSG vs Borussia Dortmund

• Location: Parc des Princes, Paris, France.
• Date and time: Tuesday 7th May, 8pm.
• How to watch: TNT Sports 1.

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